Pinkbike Poll: Which Of Our Editors' 2024 Predictions Will Come True?

Dec 22, 2023
by Seb Stott  
But what about Zipper Tires

We're not claiming to be able to predict the future. Our 2024 predictions articles probably say more about how the bike industry looks today than they do about what will happen next year. But we do have the privilege of being able to ride lots of the latest bikes, chat with their engineers and product managers, and think about how bike design has evolved and where it's headed.

That said, looking back at previous prediction articles, we certainly haven't always got things right - at the end of 2019 no doubt we were forecasting a great year of riding ahead - but some predictions at least turned out to be accurate.

So it's over to you - which of our editor's predictions do you think are most likely to materialise. You can read more into the reasoning behind each of them from Alicia Leggett, Matt Wragg, Seb Stott, Mike Kazimer, Matt Beer, Dario DiGiulio, Henry Quinney Ed Spratt and Jessie-May Morgan or just pick the ones you like the sound of below. Maybe the Pinkbike hive-mind can do a better job of forecasting the future.

Which of our 2024 predictions will come to pass?

Welcome to the longest poll ever. Tick as many boxes as you like.





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97 Comments
  • 108 9
 Why no advent calendar? I never won shit but was a good boi this year!
  • 16 0
 I was thinking the same. The bike industry doesn't have enough capital to have giveaway prizes for Pinkbike. Such a shame. I was always hoping something would come my way.
  • 13 5
 Kaz answered this question in the comments on another post recently. He said something about us all complaining about it lol
  • 16 2
 @therealnobody: all they had to do was say who won shit....and they never ever did. so me thinks we were all on to something.....
  • 17 0
 I predict that there will be no advent calendar next year.
  • 1 0
 Simply: that's why!
  • 1 0
 @Mtbdialed: US ALL
  • 3 0
 It’s currently on CRC and Wiggle. They are practically giving the stock away like an advent calendar
  • 7 0
 Doesnt matter, I won shit in the past and never got it...
  • 1 0
 @matmiller: wow. seriously that f*cking sucks
  • 74 7
 Kids on e-bikes, omfg, when will humans learn that exercise and good health are not easy.
  • 4 21
flag ReformedRoadie (Dec 22, 2023 at 13:10) (Below Threshold)
 There's really no one saying a kid can't zip around on an ebike - which seems more like an e-moto to begin with - AND a pedal bike.
  • 6 2
 @sanchofula: I'm sure you can find some shyster selling a pill for that.
  • 9 0
 @ReformedRoadie: the parents paying for the bikes (that the kids will soon outgrow) might have a say in that
  • 11 1
 Well, mountain bikers are getting fatter and lazier, so.....
  • 7 1
 @p0rtal00: EPO my dude, EPO
  • 5 0
 After all, we now drive to bike parks in cars and the lift takes us up and gravity takes us down. Are we good examples? >sarcasm is sometimes hard to understand
  • 4 4
 I only voted that one to trigger the e-haters. Seems to have worked. Lol!
  • 7 2
 I'm not automatically dismissing ebikes for kids - it depends on usage. If your kid will be predominantly using an ebike for short rides, then it is absolutely ridiculous as stated. However, if as a parent you want to take your kids out for 2hr plus epics with one big hills thrown in, and that is your only chance to ride that week/month, it might just make that a possibility? ie. The kid still gets a workout, and you get a good ride in yourself - the two don't have to be mutually exclusive.
I don't think that people appreciate how previous time can be as a parent...
(There will likely be some other cases where it makes sense too, such as disability or getting people who are overweight/unfit into riding.)
The difficult bit is that once the kid/rider is capable, withdrawing that support will be hard. This is where the benefits of unassisted riding need to be celebrated - lighter, more manoeuvrable bikes, fitness, etc.
Plus I believe that we should be limiting batteries in general - environmentally thats catching up with us fairly quickly now, along with everything else...
  • 5 3
 Can we adjust the elephant in the room? Who the h3ll has 5k to drop on a bike for a kid and should they? H3ll, it might just be me working my fingers to the bone to afford decent beer, but I won't spend more than a couple hundred bucks on a used bike for my kid. Even then I'm buying a frame and throwing parts bin components on it. It builds character!
  • 2 0
 @matyk: I sure as shit am
  • 3 0
 @viccuus: mine has a 2023 Trek Session. I guess it just depends how you prioritise things
  • 2 0
 @pmhobson: you and all the down voters missed the point - if a parent has the desire and means to buy their kid a e-moto, they almost certainly will have bought a pedal bike for them. It's not mutually exclusive or either or situation. The kid probably has a KTM85 in his future too.
  • 42 0
 I predict I'll ride my bike
  • 30 0
 My prediction: Fantasy league will be nonexistent next season.
  • 7 0
 If things continue to evolve like the last few months,all we"ll have will be fantasy.
  • 4 4
 Was it relevant?
  • 4 0
 and Reality league will nonexistent the season after
  • 1 0
 www.downhillmtbfantasy.com/Login
  • 1 0
 @Pipester: No enduro and I was having much account trouble.

It is a good step tho.
  • 12 1
 I personally love following the big enduro names through the season. But I won't lie, it would be more interesting to see the pros head around the world for the adventure enduros. The NZ happening in march, trans mediera, trans bc, stone king rally. I want to see how the best stack up, but I don't really need it to follow a world cup format.
  • 14 0
 Shimano goes wireless.... could be a 2027 prediction
  • 9 0
 I predict that bicycle wheels will continue to be round and not some other shape.
  • 1 0
 bit of a left field prediction that one!
  • 6 1
 I have a question i hope someone has an answer for. Wasn't there a rule that a product used in UCI racing needs to be introduced for the public to purchase in reasonable numbers after a certain time? Is this not the case any more, or never was? Or only on the road side of things?
  • 21 0
 That’s only on the road side of things - there’s much less regulation when it comes to mountain bikes. Just don’t wear a skinsuit…
  • 6 0
 The UCI has established rules regarding the use of prototypes in Tour de France only. These regulations require teams to present their equipment before the start of the race and make it available on the market within the following 12 months. This rule specifically applies to what the UCI classifies as "critical equipment," which includes frames, handlebars, wheels, time trial handlebars and extensions, clothing, and helmets.
  • 2 0
 @trifecta: critical equipment__clothing

I knew my it, my $180 pants do improve my riding!
  • 9 0
 I felt a bit dirty agreeing with some of those predictions...
  • 7 0
 The lack of pinkbike advent is the greatest tell on the current state of the industry.
  • 7 0
 deez nuts. bound to be the case
  • 5 0
 Outdoor continues to try change and try to transition PB's traffic to something that aligns with a their profits and business models..
  • 4 0
 ...should say i'm for some change, not Autoplay : )
  • 4 3
 I know right? I mean things have just changed so drastically here since O+ bought Pinkbike. Theres.... and, well and then that time... nothing changed. In fact the only thing I can tell that changed is that Levy decided to retire but that's just because he's over being a media hound.

In all fainess I'm being sarcastic but I'd love to see your list of how things have changed, tanked and gone under for PB since the O+ purchase. Having followed from the start and being a harsh critic of rotten corpoations, I guess I'm not seeing it but I'm curious what you've seen that I've missed. I'm open.
  • 2 0
 2024: All bikes have headset cable routing. A step too far, bikes mechanics quit.
Then the planned obsolescence e-bike electronics start to fail causing the industry to collapse because no one knows how to work on their bikes
  • 8 3
 2024 called...err texted...it's not going to be better.
  • 5 0
 The bike industry is gonna break in 2024. I don't think stabilization will come until 2026 and that ripple effect could have a decades long impact on the sport. If companies can't make money how can they justify salaries for pro riders, events and so on and so forth. It's going to be hard times. I think we all just need to go back to the roots of riding and having a good time on our own terms.
  • 4 0
 @scrawnydog: Yes, please. f*ck the marketing, just have fun with your buddies. Same for the EWS. I don't care if there is a world cup. I just want to have fun on some local races.
  • 6 1
 People will freeride again!
  • 5 0
 More fat American kids Will ride motorbikes ….
  • 1 0
 Hey... true - but hey... let us "muricans" dis ourselves!
  • 1 0
 I predict the ability to adjust your dropper travel without disassembly on electronic droppers.
Aftermarket wiper seals for all brands of dropper - Hi SKF
Also 2 position return heights from full to less full height, that you can adjust with out having to assjust.
Maybe more of a wishlist and some thoughts.
Happy 2024
Also.. the fight for access between Suron, GasGas owners and mountain bikers.
Especially at bikeparkz.
More trail closure bc of Suron Gasgasholes
✌️
  • 1 0
 EBike Motor with integrated Gearbox and Beltdrive.
Paired with sustainable parts and geo.
No other fancy hifi rubbish (abs and eletronic Suspension and stuff) and make it out of Aluminium plus 4 figure Price.
……yes, i know
  • 12 8
 Will 2024 have more poo poo? Or more pee pee?
  • 5 2
 Yes
  • 6 1
 It all trickles down
  • 3 1
 I don’t get the enduro bikes becoming steeper. I don’t see them becoming slacker, but steeper?! I hope not. Bike geometry seems pretty damn near perfect.
  • 2 0
 I think it depends what "steeper" means. The Spire is at 62.5 in low mode and although it probably is currently an outlier, I think it's easy to see that 63ish as the norm. I could see the most common hta sitting closer to 64 again. There is definitely a correction for "long low and slack" happening
  • 2 0
 Pfft. I can’t believe that none of the staff predicted that Levy would finally find his UFO and be a worldwide sensation post Pinkbike. Fail.
  • 4 0
 Jackson Goldstone will move to Mongoose and win the Tour De France
  • 1 0
 No prediction for ABS to make the jump from EBikes to regular bikes... with electronic shifting and electronic suspension on regular bikes, it's only a matter of time before ABS arrives
  • 3 0
 Something will piss off PB commenters more than headset routing. Someone will get robbed.
  • 1 0
 Very stra predictions, besides the obvious that Jackson will win the 24-season. If you watched this season and despite all his injuries was so supreme, how would he fail to win in 24?
  • 1 0
 Kids riding e-bikes? Had mountain bikes been around when I was a kid my parents would have made me get my own analog bike and a bag of rocks to the top of the trail for character building purposes.
  • 2 1
 Maybe not for 2024 , but for later companies will complain on Goldstone for winning every single race and will reduce their investment in downhill
  • 3 0
 Summer will be very dry in BC.
  • 7 8
 The end of Privateers at the world cups doesn't bother me so much, so long as local racing series grow and we have more intermediate series around, like minor league baseball feeding into major league.
  • 6 5
 What lunatic said more kids on emtb? Even on emtb specific websites and forums you get ostracized for suggesting it!
  • 18 2
 Predicting it doesn't mean you support it...
  • 8 2
 @dglass: Many are unable to make that distinction, when their emotions take over.
  • 3 5
 Maybe I missed something but nobody has mentioned automatic shifting as an important development. I predict autoshift in its various forms will dominate the landscape 10 years from now, and even regular bikes will have systems that allow for autoshift without adding assistance. You can DV me but watch how all high end ebikes will offer autoshift next year.
  • 1 0
 the way autoshift works is by spinning the chainring independently from the cranks. not sure how that's gonna happen without a motor.
  • 1 1
 @pmhobson: Maybe a clutch system that binds the wheel's rotation to the cassette when you shift it? I'm sure someone could figure it out if I can napkin up an idea, I just don't know if it'd be worth it.
  • 2 0
 @sherbet: then you'd need a free-rotating chain ring to turn the bike into a fixie. I don't know why I'm so hung up on this. I don't even care.
  • 1 0
 @pmhobson: That's correct. That would then spin the cassette, moving the chain if there's a ratchet at the chainring with low drag, or perhaps a roller bearing pawl style system, it would then allow you to shift the gears without pedalling.

The immediate flaw is that in some of the lower rings, the chain would likely wanna fall off.

All I'm saying is I'm a dumbass bike mechanic and I have a couple maybe ideas on this one. I'm sure it's possible. The question boils down to if it's worth whatever compromise we need to make in order to function.
  • 1 0
 @pmhobson: Shimano FFS!
Pair it w/ Positron but make everything electric and you have a winner.
That was done so many years ago.
  • 1 2
 Auto shift will work with motorcycles… I mean e-bikes… but for mountain bikes, the auto shift will never be able to “see” the hill coming like the human eye does…it will be a reaction instead of anticipating…
  • 1 0
 All uneven-numbered predictions will become true.
  • 17 0
 That’s an odd prediction.
  • 1 0
 $10 on Mike Levy sub level lizard people
  • 1 0
 I don't get the statment more"16kg ebikes" will weight 19kg!!?????
  • 1 0
 Same. I think they mean there's a likely new class of e-bikes emerging in between existing SL and full power bikes? 60NM with 500wh batteries?
  • 1 0
 @photodog: I guess we'll just have to wait and see......
  • 5 0
 I thought it meant that light e-bikes, don’t weigh as little as they claim, but I could be wrong.
  • 1 0
 @PHX77: Ye that did cross my mind when reading! Mmmm
  • 1 0
 Bummer no one predicted wooden enduro bikes....
  • 1 1
 Trump will become president and allow mountain biking on National Park and Wilderness lands.
  • 2 1
 Nothing about aliens??
  • 6 2
 Illegal or the ones you like?
  • 3 4
 The real question is will Mexico hold the reigning “unwanted alien” title. The Italians held it for a while but letsss roll the dice 2024!!
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